Iran worried about Biden’s next move in the Middle East

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The Tasnim News from Iran had an interesting article discussing concerns about US President Joe Biden’s next move in the Middle East. Iran has watched the US withdraw from Afghanistan and hopes the US will withdraw elsewhere. However, veteran analysts in Iran seem to think that the US will not continue the withdrawal and will instead find reasons to stay in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere.

Iran is deeply interested in how Biden sees Syria and the US military presence in Iraq. “They are targeting Syrian and Iraqi forces on the border between the two countries under the pretext [those forces] Threat to US troops. There is no doubt that there is no connection between this aggression and the fight against terrorism, ”says Tasnim.

The analyst argues that the US-targeted groups were fighting “terrorism”. This is because the Iranian regime claims that pro-Iranian militias are fighting against jihadist groups in Iraq and Iran. The conspiracies put forward by pro-Iranian commentators generally claim that the US is supporting “terrorists” against Iran and that the US is only pretending to fight groups like ISIS. “Anyone genuinely searching for the truth knows very well that it is the United States that is spreading terrorism and relying on terrorist groups to justify its military presence in the region and its occupation of Iraq and Syria.” This is of course nonsense. The US left Iraq in 2011 and did not return until 2014 at the invitation of Baghdad to help in the fight against IS. The US Air Force and special forces were key to defeating ISIS. It was not Iran that defeated IS in Raqqa, but the US-backed SDF. Iran helped defeat ISIS, but its claim that the US helped “terrorists” is incorrect.

Iran is aware that the US is more focused on China these days. However, Iran wonders what the US will do in the Middle East. “In this respect, it can be concluded from the behavior of the USA in the region that the country is planning a new strategy to influence the region: the ambiguous decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, ambiguous statements about the military” Withdrawal from Iraq, vague and fruitless demands Ending the Yemen war and finally the ambiguous request to resolve the Syria issue in accordance with resolution 2254 without circumventing the legitimate Syrian government involve contradicting behavior.

The Iranian analyst says the US cannot be trusted to actually withdraw troops. “Why are the Americans ready to hand over the strategically important region of the Middle East that plays an important global role to Russia, America’s most powerful rival?” That is a good question, and many who worry about the withdrawal the former US administration wondered if this would strengthen Russia.

Iran believes the US wants to avoid military conflict. This would reduce the chance of the US increasing its presence. The US goal now is to “forge close ties with the armies of the US-affiliated countries and control their decisions and actions in such a way that their armies are a substitute for US policy in the Middle East,” argues the analyst. He cites Lebanon as an example. Under the guise of humanitarian goals, the US wants to create a “gap between the army and the Lebanese resistance” [Hezbollah]so that over time the Lebanese army will be under direct US control and so that the Zionist regime can more easily achieve its goals in Lebanon in a possible future war with Hezbollah. ”This conspiracy theory is probably representative of Iran’s view of the US Discussions about Lebanon and means that any US role there, even throwing money on the Lebanese army, will be viewed with suspicion. Tasnim notes that Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah was referring to this “American conspiracy” … Nasrallah assured that these US Zionist conspiracies would not succeed and that the army and Hezbollah would not fall into the Washington trap.

The article next looks at the recent attacks by pro-Iranian groups on US forces in Syria. This came after the US ordered the bombing of pro-Iranian groups in Albukamal in response to drone strikes. This suggests that more attacks may follow. The author argues that the US wants to prevent stability in the region. “The United States must prevent instability in the region and create chaos in order to consolidate its occupation of the Middle East, this requires the presence of terrorist groups in the Middle East … We shouldn’t expect the United States to stop supporting.” ISIS or otherwise Pressuring terrorist groups or Turkey to end its support for terrorism; It is also not possible to cut off US support for the ‘democratic’ militias in Syria. ”This is a reference to US support for the Syrian Democratic Forces, a group that emerged from Kurdish groups that defeated IS in 2015 and with whom the US has worked. The US administration under Trump also sought closer cooperation with Turkey and Turkish-backed extremists in Idlib.

The Iranian analyst is right on this point. The former US administration tried to support extremists who were supported by Turkey. Washington mistakenly thought these groups were fighting the Assad regime and Iran, but instead Turkey used them to ethnically cleanse Kurds in Efrn and other places.

The analyst’s conclusion is that the US is not leaving the region. “Contrary to popular belief,” he argues that the US is not leaving. “Some experts believe that recent US actions, such as the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan or the withdrawal of US missile defense systems from several Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia and Iraq, mean Washington’s military withdrawal from the Middle East . Do not accept this idea. ”

In fact, the article claims that the US currently lacks a comprehensive strategy for the region. “What is certain, however, is the escalation of the confrontation between the American occupying power and the resistance” [pro-Iran] Groups in Iraq related to combating that country’s national decision to evict Americans. The Americans are also trying to prevent the strengthening of Syrian-Iraqi ties on the axis of resistance. ”The analyst believes the US is concerned about Iraq’s close ties with Iran and that Iran is using Iraq to support and support Palestinian groups Attack Israel.

What are the US options. Tasnim’s explanation is that the US could wage a new war in the region, but it would be costly. It notes that the Iran-backed “resistance” forced the US to leave Iraq in 2011. “The second option is for Washington to pull out for fear of a costly war that would mean the collapse of US credibility. In the end, it can be said that if the United States chooses either of these options, it will mean defeat for them, and the consequences of that defeat will hit the Zionist occupiers and the compromising Arab regimes, whose existence is supported by American support depends. ”

In short, Iran believes the US is facing a checkmate scenario one way or another. However, the article shows that Iran is concerned about its lack of understanding of the current policies of the Biden government. The Iranian regime has carefully studied the mindset of US politics and the US role in the region. Despite the conspiracies Iran makes to explain the role of the US, it tends to understand some of the basics of US decision-making.



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